Why ViaSat Stock Popped on Monday

ViaSat (VSAT 19.54%) soared 24% through 1 p.m. ET Monday after William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma upgraded the satellite communications stock to “outperform” and predicted ViaSat shares could more than double over the next 12 months.

What Blair said about ViaSat

DiPalma took a sum-of-the-parts approach to arrive at his new valuation for ViaSat, which provides both commercial broadband and narrowband communications services and also has a defense and advanced technologies division providing equipment and services to the government and military.

The analyst pointed out in a note covered on TheFly.com that ViaSat is considering spinning off or IPO’ing its defense technology business, which according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence accounts for about 27% of ViaSat’s revenue — and all of the company’s profits.

That would appear to imply there won’t be much left worth owning to ViaSat after such an IPO. But according to DiPalma, the company is actually on track to turn free-cash-flow-positive later this year and in line to receive a $568 million payment in 2026. After it pays for and launches its final two ViaSat-3 satellites, positive free cash flow (FCF) is more likely. And that catalyst, combined with the IPO, could double ViaSat’s stock price in a year.

Is ViaSat stock a buy?

My worry is that this prediction sounds a bit too “pie in the sky.”

On the one hand, yes, building and launching satellites is expensive, and it’s a well-known drain on FCF for many satellite stocks. Completing its constellation might turn ViaSat FCF-positive. But ViaSat hasn’t generated positive free cash flow in more than a decade — since 2008, in fact — and most other analysts think it will be 2027 before the company starts generating cash again.

Based on its history, I still consider ViaSat stock a sell.