Trump keeps Iran, lawmakers guessing

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President Trump is keeping the world guessing as he mulls whether to join Israel’s escalating attacks on Iran aimed at destroying its nuclear program.

The president met with his national security aides in the Situation Room for a second consecutive day on Wednesday while openly weighing whether to strike Iran.

“Nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due.”

Israeli officials said Thursday they would intensify their strikes after Iran targeted a key hospital in southern Israel in an overnight missile attack. Israel, meanwhile, carried out strikes on Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor.

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump told senior aides he approved of an attack plan for Iran but was holding off on giving a final order to see if the country abandons its nuclear program. Bloomberg reports U.S. officials have drawn up plans for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days.

Israel has targeted Iranian nuclear enrichment sites, as well as high-ranking generals. But Tehran’s main nuclear facility, Fordow, is located in a mountain bunker that only the U.S. has the capability to strike.

The president has met with the National Security Council and spoken multiple times with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers Wednesday the Pentagon was providing options to Trump as he decides next steps.

“I’m not looking to fight,” Trump later told reporters in the Oval Office. “But if it’s a choice between them fighting or [Tehran] having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do. And maybe we don’t have to fight.”

“There’s no way that you can allow, whether you have to fight or not, you can allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, because the entire world will blow up,” he added. “Not going to let that happen.”

▪ The Hill: The U.S. faces a sea of risk if Trump presses ahead with an Iran attack.

▪ The New York Times: A U.S. strike on Iran would bring risks at every turn, experts say.

Iran has readied missiles and equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the region if Washington joins in the attacks. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said any U.S. military intervention in the conflict would bring “irreparable damage.”

Asked if he thinks it is too late to negotiate a new deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, Trump said: “Nothing’s too late.”

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee on Wednesday issued an “urgent notice” for Americans in Israel, saying the Embassy in Jerusalem is helping arrange evacuations for citizens wanting to leave the country.

▪ The Hill: U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla, who leads U.S. military operations in the Middle East, has emerged as a key player in the Iran-Israel clashes.

▪ The Hill: How close is Iran to having a nuclear weapon?

▪ Reuters: The foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain are set to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday.

As Trump mulls his options, lawmakers in both parties are growing increasingly nervous about the possibility that the president could insert the U.S. directly into the Israel-Iran war — an issue that divides his own party and the MAGA movement. 

An interview between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and conservative pundit Tucker Carlson is drawing attention to the split between the GOP’s more interventionist and isolationist wings. Carlson and Cruz debated Trump’s foreign policy, with the former Fox News host criticizing the GOP senator for not knowing the population and ethnic makeup of Iran as he advocated for U.S. intervention.

“You’re a senator who’s calling for an overthrow of the government and you don’t know anything about the country!” Carlson told Cruz at one point in the taped conversation.

On Capitol Hill, there is broad support in both parties for Israel, but there is also fear about getting drawn into a larger war in the Middle East.

Close Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is urging the president to go “all in” on a military response for regime change, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has urged the U.S. to stay out of the conflict.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said U.S. officials “need to be contemplative and look at all the ramifications.”

“I just think … slow it down if you can, make sure you’re making the right decision,” Capito said. “I trust the president to make the right decision, but it’s tough.”

“I’m uncomfortable,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), who noted Trump campaigned on keeping the U.S. out of foreign conflicts.

“These decisions are always a function of assessing risk accurately and your reward,” Hickenlooper said.

Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, expressed frustration about being kept in the dark about the president’s thought process. 

“I’m a member, as you said, of the Gang of Eight, and we’re supposed to know,” he said Wednesday afternoon on CNN. “I have no foggy idea what this administration’s plans are or what the foreign policy is vis-a-vis Iran.”

3 Things to Know Today

1. Researchers worry proposed reductions in federal weather forecasting funds will “blind” the U.S. to food supply threats. 
2. The administration is poised to eliminate long-standing guidance that adults limit daily alcohol consumption to one or two drinks. It would depart from public health warnings about alcohol and cancer risks. 
3. Washington, D.C., public transportation commuters will discover new systemwide bus numbers and route changes on June 29. Here’s what to know.

Leading the Day

WOOING HOLDOUTS: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), struggling to corral GOP colleagues who balk at provisions of a fraying tax cut and spending bill backed by Trump, will offer a deal to fellow Republicans who object to Medicaid cuts, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. 

Trump set a July 4 deadline to see his “big, beautiful bill” arrive on his desk, but Thune is juggling a heap of challenges, which means votes for passage are not assured in his chamber or during an expected return visit to the House floor.

Ideally, Thune and GOP leaders would like to see the bill on the Senate floor next week. But negotiations among Republicans could drag into the summer, even as the president’s White House chief of staff urged GOP senators at a private lunch to meet the July 4 deadline.

Asked about his party’s heavy legislative lift, Trump told reporters on Wednesday, “Any senator that votes against it … I think they’ll be finished in politics.” 

The president’s standing with his base is considered his most effective weapon with GOP lawmakers when they weigh their political options and eventually cast their votes.

Meanwhile, lawmakers learned Wednesday that Social Security and Medicare are expected to go broke earlier than last projected because of rising costs, according to the funds’ trustees. The shortfall for Social Security, which this year helps one-fifth of the U.S. population, is estimated to bite in 2034. With Medicare, it will begin to squeeze in 2033. In less than a decade, Social Security would only be able to pay 81 percent of benefits.

Trump told voters last year that he would leave Social Security and Medicare benefits untouched if reelected. In the long term, budget experts warn that an aging population and rising health care costs mean entitlement spending will gobble an increasing percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). At the moment, entitlements account for about 13 percent of GDP.

FOOD ASSISTANCE: Congress is rethinking its bipartisan generosity, enacted with the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as food stamps. While hunting for budget savings, lawmakers might soon end work requirement exemptions they embraced a few years ago to help veterans, the homeless and young people in foster care.

👉 Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) should be “denaturalized” and deported, Florida Republican Attorney General James Uthmeier suggested in a Tuesday post on the social platform X while faulting Omar’s criticism of Trump. Omar was among progressives who supported “No Kings” demonstrations held across the country to protest the administration’s deportation policies and Trump’s military parade in the nation’s capital. 

The Minnesota lawmaker was born in Somalia and became a naturalized U.S. citizen before being elected to Congress in 2019. Denaturalization is rare but possible in cases of treason or crimes. Uthmeier was appointed to his state position in February by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and is campaigning to keep his post after next year’s Florida elections.

ICE DANCING: How deep into red states is Trump willing to push his Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) crackdown to drive up deportation numbers when industries he cares about are lobbying to keep migrant workers on their payrolls? The president has been accused of flip-flopping on that question after issuing orders he quickly reversed tied to farmers, ranchers, meat packing plants and hotels and restaurants.

Trump, when asked by a reporter Wednesday to explain his shifting guidance to ICE, responded, “We have to take care of our farmers. We have to take care of people who run leisure, hotels. Most importantly we have to get the criminals out of our country.”

When and Where

• It’s Juneteenth, a federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery.
• The president will receive his intelligence briefing at 11:30 a.m. He will participate in a swearing-in ceremony for newly confirmed U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Edward Walsh at 2:30 p.m. 
• The White House daily press briefing is scheduled for 1 p.m.
• The House will meet briefly on Friday at 11 a.m.
• The Senate will hold a pro forma session on Friday at 3:15 p.m.

Zoom In

SUPREME COURT: Justices on Wednesday upheld Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and hormone treatments for transgender minors in a 6-3 decision along ideological lines — a ruling that stands to impact similar laws passed in nearly half the states. 

Rejecting a challenge mounted by the Biden administration, the high court ruled Tennessee’s law does not amount to sex discrimination that requires a higher level of constitutional scrutiny, removing a key line of attack LGBTQ rights advocates have used to try to topple similar laws. The court’s three Democratic-appointed justices disagreed with the conservative majority, saying they would’ve held the law to heightened scrutiny. 

ECONOMY: The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rates steady following a two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday, arguing the U.S. economy is doing well enough to wait for what the central bank expects will be rising inflation tied to U.S. tariffs and business and consumer adaptations to the impacts ahead.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and members of the Federal Open Market Committee project future weakening growth, higher unemployment and rising prices amid major changes to U.S. trade policy and worsening geopolitical tensions.

“It’s a time of real change and it’s very hard to see where that goes,” Powell told reporters during a news conference.

The central bank sees inflation rising again to top 3 percent this year, and it lowered its March projection for gross domestic product expansion to just 1.4 percent this year.

Trump has repeatedly pressed Powell publicly and privately to lower interest rates while chafing at the chairman’s linkage of the president’s gyrating trade levies to inflation and U.S. economic uncertainty.

“We have no inflation. We have only success,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday while asserting he could do a better job at the Fed than Powell, whose term as chair ends next year. Powell has shown no inclination to leave before his term expires and has said the law protects the Fed chair from dismissal without cause.

“I call him ‘Too Late Powell’ because he’s always too late,” Trump said, acknowledging his overt efforts to influence the independent central bank.

“I do it every way in the book. I’m nasty. I’m nice. Nothing works,” the president continued.

Trump invited Powell to meet at the White House last month.

Asked about the president’s latest remarks, Powell demurred, repeating the central bank’s commitments to its dual mandates to curb inflation and promote employment.

‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL’ FLAGS: Two tall poles were added to the White House grounds Wednesday, one north of the building and one on the South Lawn at the president’s suggestion to fly the red, white and blue. Are the flag poles safe with helicopters and visitors coming and going? Trump assured reporters they are. But one of his former White House chiefs of staff, Mick Mulvaney, wondered. “I’m looking at this going … ‘Where are we landing the helicopter without creating an increased risk for the president of the United States?’” he told NewsNation. “I don’t know the answer to that yet.” 

Elsewhere

GLOBAL TARIFFS: In the age of Trump’s global tariffs, Beijing is unleashing an export shock across the globe. As the tariffs close off the U.S. market, Chinese goods are flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America. China’s 2025 trade surplus with the world measures nearly $500 billion so far. That marks a more than 40 percent increase from the same period last year.

Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is nearing its end on July 9, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled fresh openness toward shifting the deadline.

▪ Reuters: China is talking up the digital yuan in a push for a multi-polar currency system.

▪ CNBC: These are the sticking points holding up a U.S.-European Union trade deal.

GAZA: At least 51 people were killed and more than 200 others injured by Israeli fire as they waited for aid trucks to arrive in southern Gaza early Tuesday morning. Nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed near aid centers since Israel lifted an 11-week total blockade on Gaza and allowed a trickle of aid to enter, according to the enclave’s health ministry.

“We were waiting for flour trucks,” Mohammed Abu Abed, an eyewitness, told CNN. “Suddenly, we were among the people and were hit by two missiles that tore apart people’s bodies, remains, pieces of flesh everywhere. I don’t know what to say; they killed the people, unarmed people who had nothing on them.”

The New York Times: “I’ll never try again”: For some Gazans, seeking aid is just too risky.

Opinion

• America must not rush into a war against Iran, by The New York Times editorial board.
• Trump may go to war in Iran without Congress — and that’s just the new normal, by Daniel Silverberg, opinion contributor, The Hill.

The Closer

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Mulling the recent charges in the largest jewelry heist in U.S. history, we’re eager for some smart guesses about notable heists.

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and kkarisch@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Seven California suspects were charged Tuesday with stealing gold, diamonds, rubies and emeralds in what prosecutors called the largest jewelry heist in U.S. history. What was the 2022 haul worth? 

1. $50 million
2. $250 million
3. $100 million
4. $65 million  

In Canada’s largest heist, thieves stole what in 2011?

1. Butter 
2. Maple syrup
3. Unrefined oil 
4. Copper 

Which museum displays empty frames once containing masterpieces that were stolen in 1990 in a still-unsolved art caper?

1. Art Institute of Chicago
2. Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam 
3. Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum in Boston
4. Seattle Art Museum

Inspired by a plot in popular fiction, British robbers tunneled their way into a Lloyds Bank in London in 1971, making off with what today would be $51 million in cash. Which story series inspired the U.K. ringleader (subsequently convicted and imprisoned)?

1. Sherlock Holmes, created by Arthur Conan Doyle
2. Hercule Poirot, an Agatha Christie sleuth
3. James Bond, invented by Ian Fleming
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, by Stieg Larsson

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