President Donald Trump would like to see a “better option” than Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins to represent the state. He probably can’t get one.
The moderate GOP senator causes frequent headaches for the White House when it comes to securing her crucial vote, which is needed to pass key elements of Trump’s agenda.
That’s led White House officials to discuss a potential Collins replacement in the state if she opts not to run for reelection, though there are no thoughts of actually launching a primary challenge.
But in a state that continues to trend blue, local Republicans warned, Collins is effectively the lone Republican who can fend off high-level Democratic challengers in the state. Republicans point to her seniority in the upper chamber and appropriations role as unique advantages no other candidate would match. And while Collins may frustrate the MAGA wing, a different Republican more in line with Trump’s agenda would also be much more likely to lose the seat.
For Collins to drop out “may be for very conservative people a wish list item,” said Andre Cushing, a Penobscot County commissioner and former Republican state senator.
“But, candidly, I think she’s made her announcement and she is the kind of person that doesn’t do those things lightly,” Cushing said. “She certainly has my support even when I disagree with her.”
Collins’ unique position in Maine shows the limits of Trump’s political power. The president has been fiddling with all levers of the midterms equation — ordering Texas Republicans to redraw a map, pressuring battleground House Republicans to seek reelection rather than run for higher office and now exploring primary challenges against the handful of incumbents who have bucked him. Collins, the Senate Appropriations Chair, has been frustrated by White House attempts to clawback spending that she supports, and has been vocal about her disagreements.
There appears to be little appetite — in either party — for challenging Collins, who won reelection by 9 points in 2020, despite Joe Biden easily winning the state.
That victory, which followed record Democratic spending and a wave of public polls suggesting Collins would lose, has left Democrats facing their own struggles to find a formidable challenger this year, even as they point to her dipping approval rating.
Top Maine Democrats including former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who ran against Collins in 2014, have opted to run for the state’s open governorship instead. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District is running for reelection.
That has left national Democrats without a top recruit in what should be one of their most competitive offensive targets. Gov. Janet Mills, who is term-limited, would be their top recruit. But Mills, 77, is older than Collins, 72, and the two women have generally had a good working relationship. The Democratic governor doesn’t seem eager for what would likely be a bruising Senate battle.
Even as some Republicans in Washington grow frustrated with Collins, there is no appetite to primary her back home.
“I don’t think any reasonable person that might be interested in that position would think about challenging her,” said Maine GOP strategist Alex Titcomb.
Collins has already publicly indicated plans to run for reelection. Her fundraising surged in the second quarter of the year, according to campaign finance reports filed this week. And a super PAC planning to back her said it raised $5.6 million so far this year. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is already cutting digital ads for Collins.
Democrats’ best hope to flip the seat would be if Collins did not seek reelection. Republicans would have to scramble in their attempts to find a replacement — she is the only GOP candidate to win statewide in Maine since 2014.
“Everybody knows that Susan Collins is a gift to the Republican Party in Maine,” said Garrett Mason, the former Maine Senate majority leader and GOP gubernatorial candidate.
Collins has ruffled some GOP feathers in the first six months of Trump’s term with high-profile votes to oppose his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and the sprawling “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
A similar dynamic played out during Trump’s first term in office, when conservatives slammed her vote against the Affordable Care Act repeal. But Collins largely rallied the Republican base in her favor for her 2020 reelection campaign, even earning an endorsement from former Gov. Paul LePage, who had previously been critical of her.
But Republicans in the state know that when it comes to Maine’s Senate seat, there is no “better option.” A Collins retirement — or primary loss — likely means the GOP loses the seat. And many in the state still pride themselves on her senior status in the Senate, something even another Republican could not immediately replicate.
“If someone were able to run against her and by chance beat her, that would be a really bad thing for Maine,” said Mason, the former majority leader. “But I just don’t see that happening. That’s not what’s on the ground here.”
