Reform UK would become Britain’s largest party if a general election was held tomorrow, a major new poll shows, putting Nigel Farage on course to become prime minister.
The insurgent right-wing party would jump from having just five MPs to 271, with Mr Farage poised to form a minority government.
Labour would collapse from holding 403 seats now to just 178, with Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity having plummeted since the general election due to a series of disastrous policies and chaotic U-turns.
In a warning that will set alarm bells ringing in government, the YouGov poll found that cabinet ministers Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Jonathan Reynolds, Lisa Nandy, John Healy, and Pat McFadden would all lose their seats.
And, as Mr Farage continues surging in the polls, Reform would be the biggest party in the East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, Wales, the West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber.
Nigel Farage could easily become the UK’s next PM – and it’s not because Reform voters are stupid
It is the pollster’s first MRP or so-called megapoll since the general election. As well as showing the rise of Reform and collapse of Labour, it points to the Conservatives falling even further after their worst election performance on record.
Kemi Badenoch’s party would win just 46 seats in a general election, down from 120, leaving the party in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats.
The poll showed that Reform would win 26 per cent of the vote, with Labour second on 23 per cent, the Conservatives picking up 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.
The Greens would win 11 per cent of the vote, picking up a handful of new seats to hold seven altogether.
North of the border, the SNP would return to dominance, gaining 29 seats to win 38 overall.
YouGov said Reform is the biggest beneficiary of Labour’s collapse in support, with 194 of the seats held by Sir Keir’s party turning to Mr Farage.
The pollster said the fall, if reflected in a general election, would be “staggering”, adding that Labour’s 2024 majority was so big that “many expected it could carry them through at least two election cycles”.
The damning poll comes amid a major rebellion among Labour backbenchers against Sir Keir’s deeply unpopular bid to cut £5bn from the benefits bill.
The prime minister is poised for his second major policy reversal in weeks as he prepares to offer rebel Labour MPs concessions on the welfare cuts.
It comes after Sir Keir U-turned this month on the government’s decision to cut winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners, a move blamed for the party’s heavy losses in May’s local elections.
