Pakistan closure of air space to Indian airlines may not increase costs

Pakistan’s closure of its airspace to Indian airlines Thursday is forcing carriers to alter some routes that link India to Europe, North America, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Indian carriers — including Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet — must now fly longer, and thus costlier, flights on some westbound routes. The detour could push some flights to add a refueling stop or cancel certain routes altogether.

IndiGo, the country’s largest airline by market share, said it expects a few international flights to be affected, while Air India said some of its flights to or from North America, Europe and the Middle East will take an alternative extended route.  Both statements were made last week on the social media platform X.

Air India did not respond to CNBC’s query regarding the number of routes affected. Indigo has stated that around 50 routes may be impacted, while flights to Almaty, Kazakhstan and Tashkent, Uzbekistan have been temporarily suspended.

The airspace closure comes amid tit-for-tat reactions from the nuclear-armed neighbors, following the killing of 26 tourists in the scenic town of Pahalgam in the northwestern India-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir.

India has linked the massacre to Pakistani militants, which Pakistan denies. Pakistan has called for a “neutral” probe into the incident that has reignited tensions over the long-disputed territory claimed by both countries.

Air India flight A1101 from New Delhi to New York on Saturday stopped in Copenhagen to refuel, according to the global flight tracking service FlightRadar24. The flight, which is normally non-stop, arrived nearly six hours after its normal arrival time, according to its website.  

The same flight on Friday diverted to Vienna, arriving some four hours behind schedule, according to FlightRadar24.

Pakistan’s restrictions may also make it harder for Indian carriers to compete with other airlines, which can continue to fly over Pakistan.

The closure of Russia’s airspace led some European airlines to reduce, and in some instances, withdraw services to China, as the cost of flying around Russia was far higher for European carriers than for Chinese carriers, which were not subject to the restrictions. However, Russia — and its airspace — is significantly larger than Pakistan’s.

Indian airlines operate the bulk of international flights in the country, with more than 9,000 international departures scheduled this month, according to the aviation analytics company Cirium.

Of these, Air India is scheduled to fly 519 flights to Europe, and 309 to North America, Cirium data showed.

However, the airline “can overfly Russia to reach North America” on some flights, a Cirium representative told CNBC Travel.

Many flights that link northern Indian cities to the Middle East fly directly over Pakistan – a key region for Indian workers and leisure travelers.

Half (49.3%) of outbound travel from India in 2023 was to the Middle East, according to the 2024 India Tourism Data Compendium.

The United Arab Emirates is the most popular destination, attracting some 7.2 million Indian nationals — of which 50% are Indian migrant workers, 41% are made up of leisure and recreational travelers, while the remaining 9% are business travelers, according to India’s tourism data.

Indian carriers will pay a price, but passengers may not see airfares go up by much because of Pakistan’s airspace closure, said John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation intelligence company OAG.

“It’s symbolic more than anything majorly disruptive for India’s airlines,” he said. “These types of things on their own are unlikely to lead to an increase in airfares.”

A five-month closure of Pakistan’s airspace to Indian carriers in 2019 cost the airlines around 7 billion Indian rupees ($82 million), according to local media.

Airfares on at least one route, however, have already dropped. April is typically the most expensive month to fly from New Delhi to Srinagar — the largest city in Jammu and Kashmir — with average prices ranging from $175 to $255, according to Google Flights.

Next week, flights to the city, home to around 1.2 million people, are selling for $150, the website showed.  

Air India and Indigo, in separate posts on X last week, stated they would refund or reschedule bookings to Srinagar through May 7, amid mass cancellations of travel bookings to the area.

Both airlines added flights to Srinagar to accommodate travelers rushing to leave the region in the aftermath of last week’s massacre.  

Tourism in Kashmir, renowned for beautiful snow-topped mountains and picturesque valleys, has witnessed unprecedented growth over the last few years, said Muheet Ul Islam, a journalist and filmmaker who lives in the region.

He said that as the industry grew and investments increased, people from other professions left their jobs to join the sector.

But now, “there is a pin-drop silence in the region,” he said.

“I spoke to a few tourists who said that they will not return to Kashmir Valley — ever.”