Labour welfare bill latest: MPs debate benefit cuts as Starmer bids to stave off ‘furious’ backbench rebellion

The Independent’s political editor David Maddox reports:

The Tory leader has made her shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately stand aside for the welfare reform debate today and has decided to lead from the front.

After much criticism of not showing enough leadership she wants to be at the forefront of hitting out at Labour’s discomfort on these welfare reforms.

It is a good move from Kemi Badenoch who needs to prove to those behind her that she can take the fight to Labour.

Kemi Badenoch is now speaking on behalf of the opposition after Liz Kendall introduced the bill.

She began by saying: “We are staring down the barrel of a crisis that no serious government can ignore.

“A system designed to help the most vulnerable is now creating dependency.”

However, she disagreed with the work and pension secretary’s assertion that her party created the crisis.

The Independent’s political editor David Maddox reports:

Liz Kendall is making her opening speech in the welfare reform debate after a very tough 24 hours.

She is trying to sell reducing the welfare budget to a group of extremely reluctant Labour MPs on the backbenches who are struggling to support it.

At one point she insisted there is “nothing compassionate” about keeping millions of people trapped on welfare and out of work.

That did not get any sounds of support and she has tried a more diplomatic acknowledgement that she knows the reforms “have caused stress and anxiety.”

That phrase was meant to reflect the stress and anxiety of disabled people who need benefits.

But in truth she may as well have meant the stress and anxiety in the Labour Party as a whole wracked with division over this issue and more.

The Speaker of the house has selected the reasoned amendment tabled by Labour rebel MP Rachael Maskell.

The amendment – which was publicly signed by 39 Labour MPs – would kill the welfare reforms if backed by the Commons on Tuesday.

It will be voted on at 7pm. If it receives the majority of votes, the bill will be killed.

If it does not, the main vote on the bill will go ahead, determining if it continues its passage through parliament.

The work and pensions secretary has kicked off the second reading debate on the government’s welfare reform bill in the Commons.

Liz Kendall began by saying: “This bill and our wider welfare reforms seek to fix our broken benefits system.:

Kemi Badenoch will respond to her before MPs from across the house will debate the bill at its second reading.

It will be voted on later this evening, deciding whether it moves on to its third reading.

Downing Street would not say whether it was confident that the welfare reform Bill will be supported by MPs on Tuesday evening.

Asked if Sir Keir Starmer was confident it would pass its second reading vote, a No 10 spokesman said: “Well, I’m not going to pre-empt the vote. I think we’ve been consistent in our position on that, but also made the case for reform.

“And as I say, we’re not going to get ahead of the vote this evening.”

The prime minister is “capable of doing lots of things in a day”, the spokesman said, when asked if Sir Keir was aware of criticism that he had not engaged enough with his own MPs.

Sir Keir will take part in the welfare vote, No 10 said, adding that he was “very much focused on the reform and the view that we want to move ahead with these vital reforms” when asked if he planned to speak to Labour MPs before the Commons debate.

The debate over the government’s welfare bill is expected to begin shortly in the Commons.

It follows a statement from the business secretary on updates to parental pay.

There will likely be several votes in the lead up to the main vote at 7pm.

These will be on amendments – five of which have been tabled. The Speaker will decide which ones will be voted on before the bill.

The main one has been tabled by key rebel Labour MP Rachael Maskell, which would kill the welfare reforms if backed by the Commons on Tuesday.

The Independent’s Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin reports:

Politics professor Philip Cowley has compiled a list of previous revolts for comparison once we see how many MPs vote against Labour’s welfare reform plans tonight.

16 – is the largest backbench rebellion Starmer’s whips have seen so far, earlier this month during the passage of the planning and infrastructure bill.

47 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first year, over lone parent benefit.

67 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first parliament, over incapacity benefit.

72 – is the largest rebellion by Labour MP at the second reading of their governments’ bills, a record shared by votes in 1947 (national service) and 2004 (university fees)

91 – is both the largest rebellion in the first year of any government since the war (a 1975 vote over the civil list) and the largest rebellion by government MPs at the second reading of any bill since 1945 (House of Lords reform, in 2012)

139 – is the largest backbench rebellion of any governing party since the Corn Laws (Iraq, 2003)

The Independent’s Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin reports:

Watch the language of Labour MPs closely over the next few hours.

Saying they cannot vote for Keir Starmer’s benefits changes might lead you to think they will vote against them.

But many are expected to abstain instead.

Indeed, how many abstain could determine whether the government wins or loses the vote.

Too many abstention, of course, could still mean a defeat for No 10. But it seems unlikely we are in that territory.

The Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:

A senior economist has said Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare cuts are a “sad indictment” of how policy is made in the UK.

Speaking to The Independent, the New Economics Foundation’s Max Mosley said: “Today is a sad indictment of how we make policy in this country.

“This government is claiming that this botched set of cuts were prompted by a need to improve our social security system.

“But the real motivation is a scramble to find government savings after GDP growth was lower than expected following the autumn budget. Something has gone seriously wrong here.

“How have we ended up in a world where 1 percentage point error in our GDP forecasts cascades down into pushing a quarter of a million people into poverty?”