England’s local elections on 1 May represent a key test for all the major parties.
In what could be a new era of multi-party politics, Labour and Reform are almost neck-and-neck in the latest national opinion polls, with the Tories lagging behind.
And it is the latter who face the most difficult challenge. The last time this particular set of council elections was held was at the height of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce”. Since then, Partygate and a series of other scandals have reversed the party’s fortunes, leaving it out of power in Westminster for the first time since 2010.
But Labour could also struggle in certain seats. Despite its momentous rise to power at the general election last summer, the party has made a series of controversial decisions since then, including scrapping winter fuel allowance for millions of pensioners and sweeping welfare and international aid cuts, that could trigger a backlash from voters.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform will discover whether its momentum in the opinion polls continues or has started to stall.
As well as council elections, there are also a number of mayoral positions up for grabs, and a parliamentary by-election.
Here are the key seats to look out for in the early hours of Friday morning and beyond – and why they matter.
Mayors
Greater Lincolnshire
A recent YouGov poll suggested that the Reform candidate, former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns, is well ahead in this contest.
One of two new mayoral positions being contested for the first time, it is seen as likely to be a two-horse race between the Tories and Reform. While Mr Farage’s party has picked an ex-Tory, the Conservatives have stayed local, with the leader of North Lincolnshire council Rob Waltham.
Hull & East Yorkshire
Another new mayoralty being contested for the first time this year. Reform have tried to make a splash by picking former boxer and Olympic medallist Luke Campbell. But they face competition from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, which all have support in different parts of the area.
West of England
Labour’s Dan Norris won for his party in 2021 but is not standing this time around after he was elected as an MP. However, he hit the headlines recently when he was suspended by the party after he was arrested on suspicion of sexual offences. The high-profile case could harm Labour’s chances of holding on to the mayoralty.
Councils
Doncaster
The only council Labour is defending at this year’s elections, the party currently holds 41 of 55 seats here. On a very bad night for the Labour they could lose overall control of the council to Nigel Farage’s Reform, for whom this is a top target.
Buckinghamshire
The seat, due to declare early on Friday morning, could be an early indication of Tory fortunes. The Conservatives have held a majority since 1974 and currently have 105 of 147 seats. Boundary changes mean the council is being cut by around a third – but, barring an upset, the Tories should remain in control.
Cambridgeshire
This could be a real sign of whether or not the Lib Dems can continue to make inroads into Tory votes. Currently the largest party on the council but without a majority, with 23 of its 61 seats, they hope to get closer to majority control.
Derbyshire
The Tories may lose overall control here, with Labour, Lib Dems and Reform hoping to gain seats. Sir Keir Starmer’s party did well here at last year’s general election, and the Conservatives, who have run the county council since 2017, are defending 40 of its 64 seats.
Devon
Could be another key seat, with potential for the Lib Dems to continue to take votes from the Tories. The Lib Dems are currently in a distant second, with nine seats. But on a good night they could deny the Tories majority control of the council, while an outstanding night would see them take full control.
Gloucestershire
The Conservatives have had control here since 2021 but no longer with a majority, holding just 26 of the 53 seats. A strong showing by the Lib Dems, currently on 16 seats, could see them leapfrog the Tories to become the largest party.
Lancashire
This is a difficult contest for the Tories, who have a tiny majority, with 46 of the council’s 84 seats, with Labour second on 26. But both could face challenges from Reform, who currently have two seats, and independents, who have five.
Nottinghamshire
The Tories face one of their toughest challenges in Nottinghamshire. The party has only a small majority, holding 34 of the council’s 66 seats. And it faces challenges from Labour, currently on 14, as well as Ashfield Independents, who have 10. Reform, which took the Westminster seat at the last election, with the election of former Tory MP Lee Anderson, is also hoping to continue its success.
Oxfordshire
The Lib Dems are the largest party here but do not have a majority, currently holding 20 of its 63 seats. Could a backlash against Labour in the university city allow the Lib Dems to make enough headway to take full control?
Runcorn and Helsby by-election
The area has been held by Labour for more than 40 years. But the by-election was triggered after the former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned following his assault conviction for punching a constituent.
As voters go to the polls, both Reform and the Conservatives will attempt to overturn Labour’s 15,000 vote majority in what was once considered one of the party’s safest seats.
