Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
Donald Trump has warned that an Israeli attack on Iran “could very well happen” as people familiar with military planning in Israel warned that strikes on Tehran’s nuclear programme could come as early as Friday.
The US president said he did not think a strike was “imminent” but noted the risk of a “massive conflict”. But people familiar with discussions in Tel Aviv said a military strike could come earlier than some had expected.
Trump on Thursday stressed that he preferred a diplomatic settlement with Iran, in comments that came as US officials were preparing to hold another round of negotiations with the Islamic republic in Oman this weekend.
The president’s remarks at the White House follow mounting tensions over Iran’s expanding nuclear programme, which prompted him to this week authorise dependants of US military personnel to leave the region.
US and Iranian officials are due to hold the sixth round of talks in Muscat on Sunday, which diplomats and analysts said could play a crucial role in whether or not the tensions escalated further.
“I want to have an agreement with Iran,” Trump said. “We are fairly close to an agreement. We are fairly close to a pretty good agreement. It’s got to be better than pretty good though. As long as I think there is an agreement, I don’t want [Israel] going in because I think it would blow it.”
Western diplomats say Tehran is keen to avoid military conflict and wants the negotiations to succeed so that it can secure sanctions relief to boost the economy.
But it refuses to accept a US demand that it stop enriching uranium domestically, insisting that is a red line, while accusing Washington of sending mixed signals.
The UN atomic watchdog’s board also on Thursday declared Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, the first such censure in two decades.
Raz Zimmt, a former Israeli intelligence analyst, and director of the Iran programme at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said the long political stand-off over Iran’s nuclear programme had reached a “crossroads”.
“Either there will be a breakthrough in negotiations. Or there will be the military option,” said Zimmt.
Trump on Thursday said he allowed military families to leave the region because the risk of a “massive” conflict was real.
“We have a lot of American people in this area and I said: ‘we gotta to tell them to go out because something could happen, soon,’” he said. “I don’t want to be the one that didn’t give any warning and missiles are flying into the buildings.”
However, several diplomats in the region interpreted the US drawdowns as an attempt to gain negotiating leverage over Iran ahead of the talks, rather than a sign that a strike was imminent.
Other observers questioned whether Israel would carry out a strike before Monday, since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s youngest son, Avner, is due to marry his partner that day at a ceremony in central Israel.
An operative close to Iran-backed militias in Baghdad characterised the past 24 hours as “performance art” ahead of the talks.
Other officials were also circumspect. Speaking before Trump’s comments, Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani said his country had no indication that an Israeli attack on Iran was imminent.
“I don’t know if there will be an Israeli attack on Iran, we have no signs, apart from what the Americans have done,” Tajani said.
