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It was a lacklustre victory for Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament. Many of those who supported her in the no-confidence vote did so without enthusiasm and to avoid a crisis.
The Commission president’s challenge now is to advance her agenda with a fragile majority and against an energized opposition. And with bruising battles ahead over the next long-term budget and a looming trade war with the US the pressure is only mounting. Can von der Leyen deliver?
Questions for our guests this week: Cynthia Nà Mhurchú, Irish member of the European Parliament for the Renew Europe Group, Philipp Lausberg, senior analyst at the European Policy Centre and Klaus Welle, chairman of the Academic Council at the Wilfried Martens Centre.
On the surface, it was a good day for Ursula von der Leyen. A solid majority of members of the European Parliament expressed their trust in her.
To achieve this result, however, the German Christian Democrat had to expend considerable political capital to buy concessions from the Socialists and Democrats to keep them on board.
It worked this time, but her center-left allies made it clear that, from now on, they expect her to stick to agreed policies, for example on climate.
A policy that has put von der Leyen increasingly at odds with her own EPP led by her nemesis Manfred Weber.
Brussels watchers predict lively discussions on the fate of the 2040 emission targets as well as laborious budget negotiations in the months to come. The question is: how messy will it get?
The second topic: The surge in migration flows from Libya that Greece is currently experiencing could easily evolve into the EU’s crisis of the summer. Last week, on the island of Crete alone, almost 500 migrants arrived per day.
Athens announced stricter measures, suspending asylum requests for three months.
The government’s goal is to discourage people in Libya from beginning the dangerous journey across the sea. But for that you need the cooperation of the Libyans. That’s what an EU delegation was trying to accomplish when they were kicked out of the country by a local warlord over protocol issues.
That begs the question: how serious a partner is Libya for Europe and how to deal with a failed state?
Finally, the panel discussed the relationship between the EU and China that caught in a cycle of disgruntlement – and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better. Restricted market access, trade imbalances or China’s support of Russia in its war against Ukraine: pick your favorite dispute.
That’s the backdrop against the upcoming EU-China summit in Beijing next week. But as Donald Trump’s shadow is looming large, some suggest Brussels should work toward a reset of relations with the Chinese.
Initially, the summit was planned to run for two days in Brussels, now it’s only one day in Beijing. Xi Jinping refused to come to Brussels and he will most likely not participate in the summit. Also, no joint statement is planned.
What needs to be done to overcome years of frustration and scepticism?
