Australia election 2025 live: shock new poll predicts majority for Labor and Coalition to have fewest MPs since 1946 | Australia news

Amanda Meade

ABC managing director responds to Dutton’s ‘hate media’ spray

The ABC managing director, Hugh Marks, has broken his silence on Peter Dutton’s claim that the ABC is part of the “hate media”, saying it’s “disappointing” that all the work done at the ABC is not recognised by the opposition leader.

On Sunday Dutton told supporters: “Forget about what you have been told by the ABC, in the Guardian and the other hate media.”

Marks was also asked to respond to Dutton’s quip on FM radio yesterday that people shouldn’t watch the ABC’s election coverage on Saturday night.

“It’s no laughing matter,” Marks told Ali Moore on ABC Melbourne.

There is a lot of work that goes on behind the scenes. There are a lot of good people that work at this organisation. There is a great sense of purpose and a great sense of purpose for Australia.

The former CEO of Nine Entertainment, who began his tenure at the public broadcaster last month, named ABC election projects Your Say and Vote Compass as services the ABC is providing as part of its election coverage.

I’m really proud of this election coverage.

We started off with a very clear focus on policy. You know, we wanted to talk about policy not politics. We wanted to talk about policy not personality. And I think the team has done an incredible job.

Rafqa Touma

Anthony Albanese can’t imagine smoking weed with Kyle Sandilands.

You never really know what you’re going to get with commercial radio, and today’s interview is certainly something.

“Can you ever imagine you and I blowing a spliff together,” the radio host asked, very seriously.

Albanese: “Now, I can’t imagine that Kyle.”

The prime minister said moves to legalise cannabis are up to the states.

But Albanese’s answers seem to do the trick, with the hosts at the end of the chat calling him “fun”.

Sandilands says, “He can handle anything, yeah, throw him a curveball, he whacks that out of the park.”

Rafqa Touma

‘There’s no room for complacency’: Albanese

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is speaking to Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O on KIIS 1065 this morning.

Albanese says he can’t get complacent despite polls showing votes are in his favour, referencing the 2019 Liberal election win:

There’s no room for complacency. You might remember 2019, everyone thought Labor was going to win on election night, we didn’t win. It wasn’t because of a miracle and intervention from up above. It was because of the way that people filled in ballot papers.

We want every single vote. There’s a lot at stake at this election, whether everyone gets a tax cut, whether students get 20% cut off their debt, whether we have a policy that we have to deal with climate change, whether we have energy bill relief, whether we have cheaper childcare. All of these issues are at stake, whether your listeners can get a first home with just a 5% deposit.

Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true, AAP reports.

YouGov’s modelling points to an 84-seat win for the government, out of 150 lower house seats, to return the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to The Lodge for a second term. The winning party needs 76 seats for a majority.

Under this scenario, the Coalition will drop to 47 seats – a net loss of 11 – meaning the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, will have led his party to its worst seat total since 1946.

Liberal frontbenchers David Coleman, Michael Sukkar and Dan Tehan would all lose their seats.

All of the sitting independents are tipped to retain their seats, while independent challengers are tipped to win Calare, Cowper, Wannon and Bradfield from the Coalition.

The Greens could lose Brisbane to Labor, dropping their lower house seat total to three, according to YouGov.

Labor could pick up Braddon in Tasmania, Banks in NSW, Bonner in Queensland, Menzies and Deakin in Victoria, Moore in Western Australia and Sturt in South Australia from the Coalition, YouGov predicts.

However, the Coalition is tipped to reclaim Aston in Melbourne, which it lost to Labor in a historic byelection in 2023. Public data director Paul Smith said:

YouGov’s MRP [or modelling] shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.

Just a note here: margin of errors can be higher when doing a seat-by-seat prediction.

Dutton denies his office asked Exclusive Brethren members to help election campaign

Dutton denies his office asked the Exclusive Brethren to help the Coalition campaign.

There have been reports that members of the religious sect – whose members don’t vote, and have hardline stances on abortion and marriage equality – have been volunteering for Liberal candidates.

Dutton has been asked whether it’s appropriate the sect volunteers with the party, but the opposition leader has batted away the questions, and has said members of all religions have been involved with campaigning.

Dutton is asked today whether his office has asked for the support from the sect, but he says, “no”, and quickly moves on.

Dutton says election is not a ‘referendum’ on the campaign

In his preamble, Dutton said that the election would be “a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government”.

A reporter asks whether that means he’s unhappy with how the last four and a half weeks of the election have gone.

Dutton doesn’t bite on his feeling of how the campaign has gone, and says:

I just think Australians [are] now most worried about what the next three years looks like, and they’re worried that if there is an Albanese government.

Another reporter asks another question about the “referendum” comment, and asks whether Dutton could have done things differently through the campaign.

Dutton says:

We should have pulled [up] Labor’s lies earlier on. That’s something I’ve commented on before.

Dutton refuses to say what Coalition wants changed about the school curriculum

Our reporter Josh Butler asks what exactly the Coalition wants to change in the school curriculum.

Last month, Dutton was asked about a “woke agenda” in curriculums, and in response, the opposition leader suggested students were being “indoctrinated” at school. The shadow education minister, Sarah Henderson, has said the party would have more to say about that curriculum change through the campaign.

The latest school curriculum was put in place under Scott Morrison’s government. Today, Dutton says:

Well, what we’ll do is we’ll work with parents to reflect what they want to see in the education system, and that is a good education for their children.

Josh tries again to ask exactly what the Coalition wants to change, but Dutton moves on.

Dutton asked about cost of slashing skilled migration program

There’s a fair bit that the Coalition has promised will be released in today’s costings.

Sara Tomevska asks whether the Coalition will factor in the impacts on productivity that could come with cutting the skilled migration program.

Dutton says, “we’ve done work with the PBO, and that’ll be reflected in our costings that we’ll release”.

Our economics editor Patrick Commins has some great analysis on what the migration cuts could look like and mean for the economy.

Dutton addresses concerns about east coast gas reservation plan

Dutton is asked whether Queenslanders could be left worse off under the Coalition’s east coast gas reservation plan.

The reporter adds that constitutional expert Anne Twomey has also suggested it could be unconstitutional, because it’s essentially a tax on Queensland.

Dutton says the policy is about “getting more gas into the domestic market”, and says the policy will help Queensland.

A big part of the policy is making sure that we can support new reservations to come online, including here in Queensland, and there’s a billion dollars to provide support for infrastructure, etc, in relation to pipelines and distribution. So our policy actually helps the industry here in Queensland.

Dutton doesn’t address concerns that the policy could be unconstitutional.

Dutton bats off questions about Scott Yung and Noel Pearson

The first question goes to reports of comments from Liberal candidate in Bennelong, Scott Yung, at polling booths saying that Dutton won’t be leader forever.

Dutton bats off the comments, and says Yung has “denied those rumours”.

Well, I note that Scott’s denied those, those rumors. What he’s telling and what all of our candidates are telling the Australian public, is that you can’t afford three more years of Labor.

The second question goes to comments from Noel Pearson who’s said Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history and culture should be taught separately at school rather than across all subject areas.

Dutton says Australians are concentrating on what parties will do to help them (this is despite him having just brought up the voice to parliament again).

I’ve been a strong supporter of Noel Pearson for a long period of time, so I think we should take on carefully what is what he’s had to say. But as we go into the election, I think the main thing people are concentrating on is which side of politics is better off to help them and their families.

Dutton accuses Labor of having a ‘secret plan’ on the Indigenous voice

Peter Dutton is speaking to media from Brisbane this morning, in his own electorate of Dickson.

Dutton has just helped to launch a Salvation Army red shield appeal.

He says the number of people needing support from Salvo’s is increasing, and then transitions that into his appeal to form government.

Before he takes questions, he brings up the voice to parliament again, quoting Anika Wells this morning, saying she’s put forward a different position to Wong.

He accuses the government of having a “secret plan”.

Albanese has said Labor won’t bring back a voice to parliament.

Andrew Messenger

Queensland moves to exempt stadia and Olympic venues from planning laws

Stepping away from federal politics for a moment…

Stadia and other Olympics venues would be exempted from planning laws, protecting them from legal challenges, under legislation to be introduced into parliament today.

Queensland’s planning minister Jarrod Bleijie is set to introduce the bill, which overrides 15 planning laws.

The move will be particularly significant for the central stadium at Victoria Park.

The premier, David Crisafulli, revealed the selection of the park as the central venue for the 2032 games last month. The decision broke two election promises made last year; not to build a new stadium, and not to do one at Victoria Park.

In a message posted to social media last night, opposition group Save Victoria Park said the decision “to try and prevent any legitimate legal objections to their proposed stadiums in the heritage-listed park is disgraceful and a slap in the face to the community”.

The group said there were still legal avenues available for a challenge at federal law.

Littleproud says people in regional Australia ‘have dropped off listening to the ABC’

Nationals leader David Littleproud has joined ABC News Breakfast, and is asked whether he agrees with Peter Dutton’s description of the ABC and the Guardian as “hate media”.

Littleproud won’t say the words, but backs in Dutton’s point, arguing that the ABC hasn’t challenged the prime minister when he says the Coalition’s nuclear plan will cost $600bn.

Well, look, what I’d say it’s been disappointing that organisations like the national broadcaster hasn’t asked the prime minister about this blatant lie about a $600bn cost to nuclear energy.

Host James Glenday unsurprisingly takes umbrage at the accusation that the ABC hasn’t asked those questions to the PM. The backstory here is that the $600bn figure has come from the Smart Energy Council, which has previously donated to Labor, and whose number is much higher than the Coalition’s commissioned costings.

Glenday asks whether it’s “helpful” to describe the ABC as hate media in some of the Coalition’s electorates. Littleproud digs in on his attack of the public broadcaster.

Well, I think unfortunately, James, what’s happened is much of my electorates, people have dropped off listening to the ABC. And that’s a shame because I think it should be more about news and less about views.

Andrew Messenger

Queensland government delays anti-discrimination law indefinitely

Queensland parliament has voted to indefinitely delay implementing landmark anti-discrimination legislation it passed into law last year.

The attorney general, Deb Frecklington, flagged the move last month. They were included in an amendment to an unrelated bill Frecklington introduced yesterday.

Among other reforms, they expanded discriminatory protections to victims of domestic violence and homelessness, disabled Queenslanders and improved protections for employees subjected to sexual harassment at work. Initially the reforms were to take effect on 1 July.

Queensland Human Rights Commissioner, Scott McDougall, said the move was “a huge disappointment to me and will be to many Queenslanders who have worked tirelessly for positive change”. He said he’d pressed Frecklington to allow uncontroversial parts of the bill to take effect on schedule and called on her to announce a new commencement date.

The shadow attorney general, Meaghan Scanlon, said:

Indefinitely delaying protections for women at work – domestic violence victims, people who are experiencing homelessness – is disgraceful. Given the staggering number of women in this state and country who have been the victims of sexual harassment and assault in the workplace, God only knows why the LNP wants to let discrimination run unabated.

The bill passed on party lines last night. Frecklington said on Tuesday:

The decision to delay the commencement of the RAW Act was not taken lightly. The government remains fully committed to fostering safe, respectful and inclusive workplaces across Queensland

However, the postponement was necessary to ensure that the implementation of the act is as effective and impactful as possible.

Labor attacks Coalition costings due today

Labor is taking the opportunity ahead of the Coalition releasing their costings to throw doubt on their numbers.

On ABC News Breakfast, Anika Wells was asked whether she believed the Coalition could cut $40bn in debt.

The Coalition has more holes than a golf course in the statement they have released to media overnight about their costings. I hope that people that are possibly 72 hours away from becoming Australia’s government, they have got more detail to offer you all.

Deputy PM Richard Marles also had a dig on RN Breakfast:

The Coalition in terms of how they have spoken about the budget have been an utter joke.

Labor accuse opposition of “verballing” Penny Wong

Questions on the voice to parliament have continued to plague Labor this morning, following foreign affairs minister Penny Wong’s comments to the Betoota Advocate podcast.

The Coalition has used her comments, reflecting on the voice debate, saying, “I think we’ll look back on it in 10 years’ time and it’ll be a bit like marriage equality” to accuse Labor of wanting to bring back the voice.

The PM and senior cabinet colleagues denied that yesterday and accused some of “verballing” Wong.

Deputy PM Richard Marles is asked on RN Breakfast whether the voice will return, and he also says Wong has been “verballed”.

But when asked about where the failed referendum leaves the other elements of the Uluru statement from the heart – for treaty and truth – Marles won’t really say.

Our focus is in respect of practically making a difference to closing the gap, and that’s where our focus is. And we’re working with the Indigenous leadership of this country, acknowledging that I think parties of both persuasions have wanted to close the gap.

Sally Sara asks why the PM hasn’t visited remote Indigenous communities during the election campaign. Marles says the PM has worked “consistently” with Indigenous communities.

Well, I mean, the prime minister has travelled more around the country, and I think has visited more Australians than you could imagine someone doing in the course of a campaign.

Earlier on News Breakfast, Anika Wells was asked whether the voice was coming back, she said, it was “gone”.

The voice in the form that we took to the referendum is gone… but we are always looking for way to help First Nations peoples.

Women in rural and remote areas struggle to access social security, report says

Cait Kelly

Economic Justice Australia has released a report showing women in 4R areas (regional, rural, remote, and very remote australia) are struggling to access social security payments.

As part of the report they heard from a mother in the Kimberley who was unable to verify her identity to Services Australia because she can’t afford her birth certificate; a victim-survivor of family violence in central Queensland who couldn’t access online services due to poor internet connectivity; and a woman in rural Tasmania caring for her elderly parent, facing a six-month wait for Services Australia to review an incorrect decision.

The report found these access issues were made even more significant by the fact one quarter of women in these areas have a personal income of under $400 per week.

Kate Allingham, chief executive of Economic Justice Australia, said:

A functioning social security system isn’t just about eligibility. People need to actually be able to access it. This report shows there are significant barriers facing women in regional, rural, remote and very remote areas, which effectively exclude them from the support they’re legally entitled to, and which is often desperately needed.

It is clear from this election campaign that social security is not a priority for either major party. This is disappointing, and not good enough considering how severe and widespread the human impact of these policy decisions are.

EJA is calling on the government to implement a raft of measures to ensure all women who need Centrelink can access it, including improve training and support for frontline staff to identify people struggling with proof of identity requirements, adding private consultation rooms in rural Centrelink offices, training staff so people are not turned away, funding interpreters and outreach services.

South-east Queensland a key battleground

South-east Queensland will be an area to watch on election night as the Liberals, Labor and Greens battle it out for seats.

The Greens shocked many winning three lower house seats for the first time in 2022, in Ryan and Brisbane (taken from the LNP) and Griffith (taken from Labor).

Anika Wells, a Queensland Labor MP and cabinet minister, tells ABC News Breakfast this morning she reckons Labor have got “a very decent chance” of clawing some of their votes back in the state.

[We’ve] got a very decent chance at it because I have been watching people come in to vote, we’re now in our second week now … I think people progressives who are tossing up between voting red or green are always looking to vote for something, and I think this time around, we have given them things to vote for.