Small boat migration is on track to reach its highest-ever levels this year, with numbers breaking records even before the summer peak begins.
More than 21,000 migrants have already crossed the English Channel from France this year – up 55 per cent from the same period in 2024 – meaning Sir Keir is on track to oversee the highest year for small-boats migration to the UK on record.
Last year proved to be the deadliest for channel migration, with 73 migrants dying while making the crossing, but it appears the situation is only set to get worse.
Labour promised to tackle small boats migration in its manifesto, with the issue set to be front and centre on the agenda for this week’s visit from French President Emmanuel Macron.
Over a three-day state visit, Sir Keir is hoping to finalise a long-awaited “one in, one out” agreement but is highly unlikely to land it because of opposition from other EU countries and President Macron’s political opponents in France.
The PM and his French counterpart are also expected to discuss increasing enforcement from French border police. Last month, French authorities were photographed watching on and escorting as people smugglers boarded migrants onto boats headed for the UK. French police are typically unable to intervene to intercept boats in shallow waters.
Defence secretary John Healey called the scene “pretty shocking”, deeming the lack of action a “really big problem”.
Last week, the BBC captured footage of French police using knives to slash a small boat carrying migrants in shallow waters.
Transport secretary Heidi Alexander said that while “it wasn’t pleasant to see”, the push to prevent people crossing into the UK is “action we are supporting”.
The facts on small boats migration
Some 21,117 migrants have arrived to the UK on small boats so far this year, figures from the Home Office and Border Force show. This is a 55 per cent increase on the same period last year, when numbers were at 13,574 people.
It is no surprise, therefore, that Sir Keir is demanding a tighter immigration enforcement deal with France after promising increased border security efforts.
This year so far, 330 boats have illegally arrived to UK shores carrying migrants.
And, on average, the number of migrants per boat has been rising, Independent analysis reveals.
Boats have been carrying an average of 58 migrants each over 2025, up substantially from 48 per boat in 2023 and 53 last year.
Since the most common forms of vessel include dinghies, kayaks and rigid-hulled inflatable boats, these highly overloaded boats present an increased risk of capsizing.
How many are already prevented by French authorities?
In general, French authorities are not permitted to intervene in waters, due to risk of drowning, unless they believe there is a pressing threat to migrants’ lives.
There is some speculation that France could announce that police will be allowed to intervene up to 300m from the shore.
Data from French authorities show that significant interventions are already happening.
Since May 2024 alone, when the Home Office began publishing this data, French authorities have prevented more than 33,000 migrants from crossing the channel into the UK.
This includes 21,317 individuals who were prevented from crossing in May to December last year, and 12,321 so far in 2025.
French authorities have also prevented 1,158 “events” in this period, such as small boats which have not been allowed to leave, or arrests of smugglers.
On average, French authorities have prevented around 2,300 individuals from crossing into the UK on small boats each month, which puts the prevention rate at around 41.5 per cent; or 4 in 10.
How do smugglers get to the UK?
Though small-boat migrants end up on England’s shores, their journey begins long before.
There are various routes which people take to travel through Europe and eventually depart from French waters.
At least part of an individual’s journey most often involves people smugglers – whether that begins at their country of origin, when they enter Europe, or once they reach France.
However, these crossings can be deadly.
Last year, 73 people died trying to cross the Channel in small boats.
This was more than the previous six years combined, according to the Migration Observatory.
The single deadliest incident was recorded in 2021, when a boat capsized killing 27 people, data from IOM Missing Migrants Project shows.
Nine people have already died attempting to cross the Channel this year.
How many people crossing in small boats receive asylum?
The vast majority of people arriving to the UK in small boats go on to claim asylum.
In fact, this makes up 1 in 3 of all asylum applications in 2024, according to analysis from the Migration Observatory.
Not all of these migrants are granted asylum – and the outcome varies significantly by country of origin.
Overall, 68 per cent of small-boat migrant applicants are eventually granted asylum, according to the Migration Observatory, higher than the average asylum rate.
This is around 47,000 instances of asylum granted since 2018.
The most likely groups of small-boats migrants to be granted asylum in this period are from Syria (97 per cent), Eritrea (93 per cent), Yemen (87 per cent), Afghanistan (78 per cent) and Iran (71 per cent).
But other groups from countries like Albania or Vietnam – which were two top sources of small-boats migrants in recent years – see a far lower asylum grant rate, at just 2 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.
In addition, the UK receives a lower number of asylum seekers than France and the EU as a whole.
The French Ministry of Interior recorded 157,947 asylum applications in 2024, compared to 108,138 people applicants the UK.
Across the EU, there were nearly a million (996,815) asylum applicants recorded last year.
